Disruption in Action

In the wake of the tragic Boston bombings, a number of other incidents have occurred. Letters full of ricin were sent to political figures in both parties. In Silicon Valley, a fiber optic cable was cut while some individual or group caused an oil spill near a substation. In addition, the design of the bombs in Boston seems to be a rather common “pressure cooker” design. These incidents may be unrelated, may all be copycats, or may be something else, but the fact remains that for all the police state and surveillance powers assumed after 9/11, the military and police were not able to stop them. Nonetheless, I imagine many of the familiar shills for despotism to start crawling out of the woodwork like they did after 9/11.

In the meantime, some fear-mongering (especially Arab-baiting) continues in earnest. While the week in April has some significance to American domestic extremists, the drone program has increased anti-Americanism abroad (especially under the Obama administration). The incident may also be apolitical, such as a deranged spree killer seeking more attention by using explosives instead of firearms. A sporting event is certain to have lots of cameras rolling, so merely a “smaller” bomb may kill and wound but get far more media attention. (Many rather nasty weapons in history were designed to maim rather than kill, but that is a topic for another day.) The objective may be disruption itself, showing how ineffectual the government is to prevent such carnage. The over-reaction by the government may actually be what the goals were, causing billions in disruption for the price of some cheap bombs. However, I would rather not indulge in more speculation over this sociopath and his/her/their motives. Interestingly, though, the massive deaths in foreign bombings are all but invisible to the US media now.

Varangian Arms: Ultima Ratio

This week, here's a new Varangian Arms design somewhere in the steampunk/dieselpunk vein. The name comes from the Latin phrase, "Ultima ratio regum," or Final Argument of Kings, as engraved on French artillery. The other inspiration comes from a certain weapon from Snow Crash, Reason.

-The idea is a hand cranked Gatling gun with a Predator style grip and ammo belt.

-Caliber should be something cheap and plentiful, like .22 LR.

-Backpack for ammo is optional.

Havens

As the Westphalian nation state fails and climate rises, a question that arises is “Where can be safe?” This, of course, can be a rather loaded question, given the instabilities that unfold as millions of refugees run for safety. Places that seem stable and peaceful for now may become less so as populations shift. Likewise, there is the risk of neutral places becoming drawn into wars and armed conflict by less stable neighbors. However, some places in the world have the geography, culture, and resilience to weather the disasters of a shifting planet. 

-New Zealand: New Zealand is the highest ranked Commonwealth country in the democracy index. It also has mountains that provide reliable hydroelectric power and water for drinking and agriculture. The low density makes it a good place for farming and outdoor sports and has a more relaxed, informal culture. Unlike Australia, their geography enables farming without excessive chemical use (although pollution is a rising problem, especially agricultural runoff). Refugees from Pacific islands may pose another issue as sea levels rise. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (including the supervolcano under Lake Taupo) could be another issue. 

-Northern Europe: By this, I roughly refer to the Scandinavian countries, Germany, and perhaps Switzerland. The German economy is shifting towards renewables and remains a powerhouse for technology and research. Norway also steered clear of the disaster that was the Eurozone, and wisely invests its oil money into public infrastructure and resources. Issues, however, are strict (read: practically nonexistent) immigration protocols, meaning it is good for people who are already there. As climate change occurs, I imagine those immigration controls will get stricter.

-Cascadia: Cascadia is Washington and Oregon in the US with British Columbia in Canada. This region has water from the nearby mountains, as well as abundant hydropower. Drawbacks include a few nuclear reactors there (as well as being downwind of Fukushima). This area is beautiful and likewise has a tech-driven economy. Unlike California, they have water resources less dependent than the increasingly depleted aquifers of the American Southwest. Likewise, Seattle invested in an edible garden, while other cities have not. The public transit systems in the urban areas tend to be better than many more suburban sprawl belts (such as LA).  

-New England: New England is another decent region in North America, given its white-collar economy and natural resources. In particular, Vermont appeals the most to myself, given its drive towards self sufficiency and lack of more obnoxious laws. Drawbacks include a number of nuclear reactors active in the region, especially given the large population along the US East Coast and near the Great Lakes. However, ocean acidification may mean traditional fishing becomes increasingly less viable. 

However, even Canada is sliding into an oligarchic petro-state, complete with repression and censorship of research. Maybe in a few decades time, Russia may be a prosperous and free society. No place is truly safe, but those places are where I would bet on being relatively stable compared to other parts of the world. Better to find a resilient community today.

Varangian Arms: Tyrannosaur

Here's a pistol that is extinct and impractical by modern standards, but was the apex predator of its day. The Colt Dragoon was a historic firearm that was itself a shortened/lighter version of the Colt Walker. The Dragoon was intended to be used by mounted troops, hence the name. It weighed about 4 lbs/2 kgs, and was intended to be carried in a saddle holster (as opposed to a belt one). The weight, however, made it fairly accurate and handling recoil much easier. This Varangian Arms project is simply a Colt Dragoon with a few twists that revive the beast it once was, and make it something perfect for retro-future dinosaur hunting:

-A cartridge conversion cylinder (and perhaps ejector rod) able to handle .45 BPM (Black Powder Magnum).

-A somewhat lighter frame if possible (perhaps more akin to a Colt 1860 Army).

-Perhaps a shorter barrel (if used in a conventional holster), ranging from 14 cm/5.5 in to 20 cm/8 in.

-Optionally, hand grips with a Tyrannosaurus Rex on them could be attached to the grip.

Future Shocked

Technology advances at a breakneck pace as corrupted institutions metastasize into Orwellian bureaucracies at a close rate. The signs of rule of law are generally thrown in front of a train as organizations prey on their former customers and clients.

To further add to the confusion is the effects of advancing technology. In military science, technology is not only a force multiplier for armed forces, but also enables new venues of attack previous generations would consider impossible. Imagine explaining cyberattacks to a World War II tank commander. Asymmetric warfare favors the small groups and even individuals, and their powers only increase over time. Today’s cutting edge research is tomorrow’s niche hobby.

With resource depletion, climate change, and economic collapse, the ruling elites are trying their hardest to hold onto power of vestigial structures. However, their desire and desperation to hold onto power are often the things that destroy the institutions they depend on. Corruption means that more disaffected individuals will arise, regardless of how many riots or uprisings are put down. Lots of broad bans on technologies and fields of research mean amateurs are less likely to hold things, but only a few professionals (who may or may not game the system for their own benefits). Surveillance and arrest of dissidents (including those practicing “legal” methods of dissent) means that change within institutions becomes much more unlikely. Expansive domains shrink as the costs of maintaining them exceed wealth extracted.

On the positive side, though, technologies exist for eliminating poverty and alleviating resource depletion (albeit treating symptoms rather than causes). From cheap desalinization to renewable energy to 3D printing to impressive medicaltechnology, we will need everything we can. Living under a dystopian police state out of a cyberpunk novel is bad enough, but as technologies get cheaper and more widespread, we may at least get a postcyberpunk future instead.

Iktomi: The Zeitgeist of the Third Wave

As the Third Wave crashes into a sickly and dying Second Wave system, a mythological entity may be worth revisiting. Iktomi was a spider-spirit of Lakota folklore. He was a bringer of technology, and also a trickster. An accomplice of Coyote, he would often give people new technology. Sometimes, the technology itself is a trick, a method of distracting an unwary victim from seeing the true purpose of it. Iktomi was believed to have a hold over European and American settlers, who inadvertently spread Iktomi’s web (telegraph lines and railroads) across the land.   
 

Iktomi is also correlated with communications, like Mercury. Like the Norse Loki or African Anansi, he is a trickster. The trickster archetype was correlated with hackers in recent decades, and some parallels with Iktomi are fairly logical. Both manipulate lines of communication to play tricks. Both bring novelty and new technologies. 

Hacking and cyberwar have been on the news recently. However, much about cyberwarfare is fear-mongering. Military and technological secrets tend to remain secrets for a very short time, especially in the present. Cyberwarfare favors the defender, and each cyberattack is often a single use weapon. After a cyberattack, security holes that led to it are typically the first things that get closed. Types of cyberattackers range from cyber-criminals (who merely seize something and run), cyber-spies (looking for intel or doing counterintelligence), cyber-terrorists (seeking a target of opportunity), and cyber-warriors (seeking to actively disable another network/system). Cyberweapons, such as Stuxnet and Flame, can easily be reverse engineered by their former targets. The political chiding to “improve cyber-security” may very well be a mandate to spend more on overpriced, under-efficient “security” software. Once again, the “security theater” replaces the rather boring reality. Many of the folks hawking “cybersecurity” products are the modern analogs of Basil Zaharoff.  

But to return to Iktomi, let us examine a cyber-attack as a form of combined arms. Even non-state actors could combine multiple vectors of an attack or plan to accomplish their goals. This process does not necessarily have to involve violence, destruction, or even illegality. An activist group could release leaked documents at the same moment a video goes viral. Iktomi may parallel the cypherpunk culture. As more things become networked, it becomes harder to completely shut down the internet, even if there is a “kill switch” (or more mundane power failures).

The technologies that thrive as Second Wave nation-states and corporations recede are decentralized ones. Permaculture and aquaponics may remove (or at least reduce) the need for food. Makerspaces allow for relocalized manufacturing. Solar panels and DIY renewables (such as homemade biofuels on a number of farms) could replace faulty power grids. Encrypted cybercurrencies like Bitcoin could act as a metric for a number of local currencies. There would be less need to rely on dying, stodgy bureaucracies. Iktomi would have the last laugh.

Mad Science at Home

There is a number of topics I could address this week, such as the food scandal in Europe, the spread of drones in the USA, or the rumblings of a genuine supervillain state in North Korea. However, the creation of mad science innovations at home is only beginning compared to what it may become despite (or perhaps because of) government laws. Death rays may join homemade firearms and explosives as weapons of mad scientists. Perhaps drones may be the new guns, in the sense of a disruptive technology everyone rushes to ban. Given the vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and possibilities of destructive drone swarms, protection will be extremely difficult, if not impossible. Tomorrow's "terrorists" may lack ideology or cause, save destroying something and seeing what happens. The instability of the current world system becomes even more strained as a result. What could possibly go wrong?