The Swiss Army Asset

A theory that's gained traction in recent decades is that of the diversified holding of assets. In a purely financial sense, even a balanced portfolio (perhaps including a variety of stocks and bonds) becomes more of a liability. As such, any would be investors or clients may start holding non-conventional assets, such as precious metals and even crypto-currencies. While crypto-currencies may be volatile and metal prices rigged, there is more than simply the financial gain in some cases.

In an unstable economy, the assets which sell are those that can be used to cut costs and allow people to become further self sufficient, or at least find alternative economies. It also brings to mind Gibson's concept that "The street finds its own uses for things." While the price of an individual Bitcoin can vary, the greatest asset for it may in fact be as a transfer system as opposed to a new currency.

Despite a few valiant attempts, the political machinery has largely become an incoherent mess. Can it be repaired, will something better arise, will it fail horribly, or perhaps all three? These answers are sure to be interesting as the robots advance. Perhaps the greatest asset in an unstable economy is a machine that allows one to produce almost all of what they'd need or want at once, including another such machine.

The Coming Era of Supervillainy

Multiple converging trends indicate that someday, evil overlords and criminal masterminds straight out of popular culture and into the news. There are multiple types of supervillains we can discuss here, often with significant overlap between the categories. Many are as old as society itself, while others wield abilities undreamt of by previous generations. As long as human society exists, there will be crime and malcontents of some sort. There will always be those who use power for their own ends, ignoring the cost to others. Such an environment is neither conduciveto representative government nor human benefit. 

The supervillainy of the era represents the return of a system that is as old as history. This socio-economic model is neither capitalism nor socialism, but instead something much older: feudalism. Parasitic elites at the top use warlords and peasants to support their lifestyles while peasants and serfs toil beneath them. Those outside of the system are outlaws, having no legal representation to the feudal order. 

The fundamental components are already in place, and the momentum is already leading there. I will discuss three categories of potential supervillain that could thrive in such a system: the Corrupt Elite, the Empowered Individual, and the Underworld Entrepreneur. There is significant overlap between these categories in some cases, but I believe these could be the main archetypes that tomorrow’s supervillains may gravitate towards. These are just my takes on how they may arise, what their strategies may be, and how they may deal with threats. 

--The Corrupt Elite: The robber baron, the corrupt politician, and others who abuse power and wealth for their own benefit are among both the most transparent and easiest to loathe. However, as long as even the elite have “skin in the game,” they realize working with others (the positive sum game) is better than just ignoring them. Power and wealth often go together, and history is full of politicians who help wealthy friends loot others’ wealth (via often taxes on lower classes, no-bid contracts, and bailouts for their associates). The term “kleptocrat” is most apt for these individuals, as their primary goal is to use the state apparatus to encourage rent-seeking. 

When there is less difference, financially and ideologically, between the top and bottom of society, there is a greater chance each member realizes they’re “all in it together.” This is why I believe the health of the middle class and related metrics like “median household income” are better indicators of social and economic health than just GDP. As the middle class collapses, stratification, crime, and instability also increase. The elite become increasingly isolated, building their own infrastructure and segregated enclaves while letting everything elsefall apart. Look at the American infrastructure. 

While barely half a century old, it’s already collapsing to below Victorian levels. Overreliance on cars and suburbs, as opposed to logical urban planning and mass transit (public or private), additionally made the USA extra-vulnerable to oil price shocks. There was actually a conspiracy behind this that makes the tinfoil hat crowd seem sane. Oil, tire, and car companies conspired to replace streetcars with buses. By the time the case had made it to court, the damage had already been done. The fact oil and gas companies have such financial and political power is hardly surprising. 

Many Corrupt Elites do not content themselves with merely minding their own business. Many will crackdown on the “peasants” for espousing views they disagree with, turning police forces into their personal illegal spying agencies, and enforcing their personal whims upon others with a “nanny state” approach. While police forces and crackdowns are their preferred tools for now, advances in drones, automation, and surveillance technology will mean the need for “manpower” for running their regime is greatly reduced. So maybe those police and official pensions are ripe for kleptocrat seizure, once drone and robot technology has become sufficiently advanced. Like Dr. Doom, they are “legitimate” overlords of states and territories with no shortage of robot henchmen.  

--The Empowered Individual: As stated before on the blog, new technologies can empower individuals for good or ill. However, unlike comic books, it is extremely rare for a “lone genius” to produce paradigm-shifting technologies wholly by themselves. However, the production costs and increasing ease of fabrication makes many disruptive technologies more available.

This means that while a single mad scientist is unlikely to destroy the world, the potential for disruption increases. Autonomous, decentralized networks are a far more likely incarnation for the deployment of disruptive technologies and techniques. From non-violent activist groups to armed insurgencies (and everything in between), the successful techniques used by one group are likely to be copied en masse by others. By the time a countermeasure has been found, others will likely have moved on to different tactics. Especially savvy groups might combine tactics for maximum effect, a sort of fourth generation warfare (4GW) analog of combined arms theory. 

Empowered Individuals may be motivated by a number of things, but Corrupt Elites are natural targets for them. Activists may seek the removal of a corrupt official, protest the favors given to a crooked businessperson, or seek redress for government misconduct. Not all EIs may have ideological or "moral" reasons for their activities. As people become desperate, there is always the risk of the depraved spree killer. As stated before, Dr. Brin has a great way to deal with them, denying them the infamy they seek. Like the character "V" in Alan Moore's "V for Vendetta," they cause ideologically disruption against centralized power and infrastructure for good or ill. Or like Batman's eternal nemesis, the Joker, engage in destruction for its own sake.

--The Underworld Entrepreneur: Crime of the regular sort has always been part of the economy.

As such, there have been individuals and organizations that out-competed their rivals to dominate their market. In the underworld, this means the most adept at violence and ruthless behavior can dominate their fellows. Whenever something is banned in the regular economy, black and "gray" markets may emerge to fill the demand. 

The effects of Prohibition and the "War on Drugs" have encouraged organized crime to thrive. Not only are drug-related shootings the dominant type of firearms crime, but prisons have been shoved full of non-violent offenders who have little to lose by going deeper into crime. Many street gangs use drugs to fund their own activities, and battle other gangs for control of turf they can use to sell drugs with. Typically, the police target the largest gang, often the "victor" of the gang war. After the police act, there is typically a power vacuum as other gangs or factions within the gang start the cycle over again. 

No matter which gang dominates the streets, the long term winners are the drug cartels that supplied the drugs in the first place. Some groups, like the Mexican drug cartels, have such wealth and power, they have built their own infrastructure. Not only do they possess significant munitions, logistics networks, tunnels, and other methods to smuggle drugs, some even built their own communicationsinfrastructure and armored vehicles. They maintain international smuggling networks to move their product, and are a force to be reckoned with in their home country (and beyond). 

Even outside of "regular" criminal activities (gun-running, drug smuggling, etc.), there is an entire market ecosystem outside of official channels. This is known as System D. The original term comes from a French word, "débrouillards" (meaning "clever"), but I believe an apt English translation is "Devious." Not all parts of System D involve organized crime of the regular sort. System D is a broad category for all "informal" economic activity, from kids selling lemonade to African marketplaces selling fresh food to even services like trash removal. There's even real estate provided by System D.

System D is the world's fastest growing economy outside the USA (and possibly inside it). As more things are banned, regulated, or restricted by increasingly desperate and cash-strapped states, the black and gray economies can only grow as more and more people turn to alternative economies. As 'legit' economies falter, the laws of supply and demand reach new equilibrium independent of existing policies and laws. Even "legit" companies can inadvertently be drawn into System D by proxies and "technically" legit deals.

As discrete method of payments like encrypted cybercurrencies (such as BitCoin) and unofficial exchange/logistics networks (such as the Islamic world's "hawala" practice) combine, a new type of underworld entrepreneur may emerge. The survival criteria for continuing to operate in System D are being sneaky enough to avoid law enforcement and/or having the wealth/political clout to evade accountability. This not only means it is possible an organization like SPECTRE from James Bond may emerge, but statistically probable. 

A real life Blofeld or Moriarty may lord over a distributed network of crime like a spider in a web. They may supply Empowered Individuals with illicit goods, be targets of them, or may compete with Corrupt Elites (or perhaps even make the transition into "legitimacy"). A UE may likewise benefit from automation, as it removes the need for human operatives in crime networks to a significant degree. (Such an idea is the basis of a new novel a friend and I are working on.)

So there you have some of the archetypes I believe may emerge in the future. Of course, if strange vigilantes arise to match real life supervillains, then things may get very interesting real fast. For the rest of us, however, the quality of life is likely to suffer greatly. There are many reasons why places with roving warbands are not pleasant to live in. At the same time, living on the whims of a neofeudal overlord are little better. That is why I believe in living in a resilient community less dependent on an increasingly unhinged world system.

Waiting for Naglfar

We are watching our world die. The world is sleepwalking into an environmental, financial, and political Ragnarok. Like the Norse apocalypse, our own tribulations include rising seas, savage wars, and the death of the old order. The Arctic Ocean may be ice free in a few summers from now, raising sea levels around the world. More alarmingly, this will increase the moisture in the atmosphere, allowing the effects of climate change to snowball exponentially. There is also the possibility that the methane clathrates in the Arctic will burst forth like Lovecraft's Elder Gods, sending Earth's climate into uncharted territory. The methane released could greatly accelerate the greenhouse effect, a Surtur's flaming sword of runaway climate. 

Don't hold your breath for any sort of political solution. The major nations have no interest in curbing emissions, even at a time it would be prudent to kick their fossil fuel addictions. Fossil fuels themselves are becoming harder to retrieve, with a diminishing rate of returns. Some types of gas and unconventional oil, for instance, have a negative rate of returns on energy invested. The processes to recover them are environmentally disruptive, and require increasingly scarce water resources to retrieve. Wilderness, aquifers, and farmland are turned into septic cesspools as a result of the toxic chemicals blasted into the ground. It is only through massive government subsidies to fossil fuel companies and use of eminent domain to seize private property that such activities are possible. It is not unlike a desperate junkie in need of a fix slicing their skin to find traces of their drug. 

Alternatives to fossil fuels likewise cannot sustain the status quo. Fossil fuel companies wish to inhibit competition as long as possible. Big Government-funded "green jobs" are unlikely to do much, as the individuals responsible for the pollution (public and private) have little interest in fixing it. Technical problems with energy storage, including rare earth supplies for batteries, have yet to be fully addressed. Despite some promising developments, deploying the new infrastructure would require money that no longer exists. Even in a newer, low cost infrastructure was developed, governments tend to prefer cozy relationships with centralized oil companies rather than a competitive market of decentralized firms. 

The money that could have been used to fund and develop alternatives has essentially vanished from the real economy. Kleptocratic central banks and political insiders continue to print money to sustain the pyramid scheme of speculation markets. The majority of trades on most stock exchanges are performed by software rather than humans, often used to rig trades to favor an increasingly fat few. Euros, dollars, pounds, and other currencies are being increasingly devalued with rigged and low interest rates, which penalize savers and reward speculators. Like a rigged casino game, the world economy ensures most people who play lose. Financial emergencies (often declared by the same people who started them) are used to seize the remaining assets in the name of debts that cannot be repaid. 

Globalization overcame the feedback mechanisms able to stop it. Crime and black markets have likewise become globalized. One of the fastest growing economies is not a country, but an informal economy known as "System D." While System D includes "conventional" criminal activities (e.g. smuggling and protection rackets), it includes alternative and informal transactions of all sorts. "Technically legal" gray markets, digital currencies (such as BitCoin), and barter agreements all have grown. In areas where the economy has effectively collapsed (such as Greece), barter and informal agreements handle services from protection to waste removal to food production. Revenue-strapped governments eagerly try to reign in such transactions, but to little avail. 

Attempts to ban such transactions will likely raise black market prices and empower criminal syndicates due to the "Prohibition" effect. Militarization of the police force, surveillance technologies, and the loss of rights are the logical side effects of heavy-handed government crackdowns. One need only look at the War on Drugs to see how quasi-military tactics have backfired. Ironically, in areas were state power has weakened, non-state groups from guerrillas to crime syndicates may take the place of states in the role of service providers. Many drug cartels, for instance, maintain logistics networks that could smuggle anything from illegal aliens to weaponry and even their own communications infrastructure. Political disruptions can result in these groups becoming the de-facto government. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russian Mafia was already the effective power in control of the streets. When Rome fell, many regions had already began to rely on local feudalism. 

Fear and panic are reported on by media firms and echoed by politicians. The realities of the elite and non-elites increasingly differ, despite (or perhaps due to) the attempts of politicians to hold onto the status quo.  This type of instability could easily be exploited or redirected into domestic opponents or foreign enemies. Resources from fuels to water to arable land become increasingly scarce, desperation reignites potential for conflict. From trade sanctions to shooting wars, "zero sum" foreign policy is seen as increasingly acceptable. From massive crop failures in the USA to glacial melt-water disputes between India and China, food and water become increasingly valuable. The parasitic kleptocrats and corporate socialists loot as much as possible before heading for foreign tax havens and private holdouts. When events similar to this happen in historical cultures, it simply means the former elites are the last ones to starve to death. 

 Those who oppose such policies can easily find themselves the targets of well-honed intelligence and dissident monitoring infrastructure. With drones and a lack of political transparency, targets can be executed from around the world. Even if actual assassination is impractical, character assassination and agents provocateur can easily sabotage attempts to form alternatives. With a dystopia worthy of a science fiction novel, the system ironically destroys any chance it has for genuine reform and survival. The resulting crash simply is delayed and made worse by shooting messengers. 

Alternatives to the highly-centralized consumer state are present. Power, food, water, production, and defense are things which would be more ideal as decentralized networks rather than hyper-professional bureaucracies. However, popular culture remains fixated on trivial politics, escapism, and propagation of the status quo for as long as possible. The solution is not the "doomsday bunker" mentality. Even rationed supplies cannot last forever, and a small family group is easy prey for a large group. Instead, form connections that matter. Replace "zero sum" with "positive sum." Strive for self-sufficiency whenever possible: in food, energy, water, production, and other methods. Aquaponics, desktop manufacturing, and home energy have all become cheaper, and will likely continue to do so. Resilience is a golden ideal, and will help as the world becomes unstable. Do not rely on Big Government or Big Business for employment or salvation from the problems they helped create. Find friends, family, and those you can trust. The reward is a genuine community you care about, rather than a hideously complex system built upon fraud and ignorance. 

We may draw some parallels to Norse mythology. A ship of dead men's nails, Naglfar, manned by the treacherous Loki, would start the final battle. With the endemic unethical behavior in once-trusted institutions, one failure could cause others. The venomous death throes of the old order, like mythic serpent Jormungandr, could destroy much of what we are used to. However, Ragnarok brought an end to a doomed world, so that new one could arise. The fever dream will eventually pass, although the transition will be difficult. It is better to strive and fail than to passively wait for Naglfar. Even the fallen warriors ended up in Valhalla.

Secession Season: Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

“If any State in the Union will declare that it prefers separation with the first alternative, to a continuance in union without it, I have no hesitation in saying “let us separate.” I would rather the States should withdraw which are for unlimited commerce and war, and confederate with those alone which are for peace and agriculture.” -Thomas Jefferson

We may be in for a wild ride, given my surprise by recent events in the US. Unless you’ve been completely isolated from the outside world, you likely have heard of Europe’s economic woes. When the ill-planned Eurozone was being rushed through political channels, the books were cooked regarding the peripheral countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, etc.). Said manipulations were performed by many of the same characters who are now calling for austerity, privatization of public assets, and similar measures. While Iceland offers a clear solution on dealing with corrupt financial institutions, the same has not occurred in the rest of Europe. Many countries had their elected governments replaced by former bankers (such as Italy and Greece). Referendums and democracy are shoved out the window to benefit the same group of kleptocrats who caused the crisis in the first place. This is the very definition of regulatory capture, oversight agencies taken over by individuals who compromise their function. In this case, regulatory capture extends to several layers of the EU bureaucracy, US politics, and countless other places.  

Interestingly, there is another trend that could serve to counter this. If a state government is compromised, why not start fresh from a new state? Likewise, in weakened states, prosperous regions do not wish to “foot the bill” for the less prosperous regions. Regionalism can become a nascent nationalism unto itself. In regions that formerly were nations, nationalism can re-emerge in times of crisis. The drawbacks are that it can lead to racism and discrimination against immigrants and minorities. There are, however, discrete benefits beyond merely saving money in taxes. Downsizing a political regime to a smaller level makes it more responsive to popular pressures. The EU’s bureaucracy is ill-prepared to handle several different countries and cultures. Attempts to force them together result in tensions and instability. The less removed a particular group of people feel from decision making, the greater the potential for unrest. Add in an economic crisis unrivaled since the Great Depression, changing demographics, and you have potential for quite the mess. Is it any wonder why Scotland, Catalonia, and Venice wish to leave their respective countries?

Just imagine that. Scotland is about to hold a referendum on independence, and perhaps remove the “United” from the “United Kingdom” (especially if Wales gets some ideas). Catalonia has a history of political unrest during the Spanish Civil War and Franco dictatorship, and there’s still quite a bit of tension there. Venice was once its own empire, and perhaps we shall see the return of ‘Juditha triumphans,’ as its national motto. While affluent, I imagine a Second Venetian Republic’s most pressing concern would be climate change and sea levels. I can imagine the status quo and its beneficiaries, such as governments, businesses, and perhaps even covert operatives, using dirty tricks galore. They might ensure referendums fail, ignore them, or barring that, move in like opportunistic parasites via the normal backdoor deals and regulatory capture (although that would definitely take time).  

What I am surprised, about, though, is that secessionism made its comeback in the EU before the USA. It took yet another charade of an election between two cardboard cut-outs to get people talking secession again. Also unsurprisingly, there are many of the old Confederate states. How much of this is serious talk, and how much is partisan inspired post-electoral posturing remains to be seen, however. I have a feeling this is much more that latter than the former (at least at this stage). 

Interestingly, though, these secession petitions are not merely “Blue” or “Red” states. We’ve got some “swing” states in there, as well as both. The total list includes: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.   

There is a backlash against this as well, a petition calling for anyone who signed such a pro-secession petition to be stripped of US citizenship and exiled.

I wish I was making this crap up. A lot of this just seems to be regular posing, but what remains to be seen is how much momentum or lasting appeal it actually has. There are a number of reasons outside political partisanship for preferring secession (or at least more “states rights”): the failures of FEMA compared to Occupy in the wake of Sandy (even with Bloomberg having the NYPD brutally evict them), the decrepit and decaying American infrastructure (with no one talking about fixing it), dislike of Federal overreach (such as giving away public lands to oil companies or bank bailouts with taxpayer cash), the NDAA (indefinite detention for everyone for any reason), the drone assassinations of US citizens (no due process), the warrantless surveillance, privatized prisons in league withgangs, disillusionment with the Drug War, and others. I believe local decision making would resolve many of these issues in a way politically acceptable even to the majority of people within a state.

I could see the USA possibly coming apart in a few ways, although a new era of “states’ rights” might give the polarized country the breathing space it needs. Under such a scenario, the Feds lease land for military bases and handle the major inter-state infrastructure (and a few other tasks), while most other issues are handled locally. (I had a secession attempt being averted by such a political bargain in a fictional setting.) There’s also the possibility of a military misadventure backfiring, detailed in another fictional scenario.

Still, there are benefits in the form of ending the “culture war.” Imagine, the Red States get their guns and family values, and the Blue States get their birth control and socialized medicine. There might even be unintended environmental benefit due to less carbon emissions from less frequent driving and lower demand for military manufacturing. Perhaps if the Southern States were more pragmatic than proud, they might've continued a political secession course instead of a militaristic one. There's also the fact that despite stereotypes, the "Red" states get more Federal money than they collect, so any new CSA probably would be in economic dire straits.

Apart from “Confederacy 2.0,” I could see even the “West Coast Blue” states and “East Coast Blue” states having cultural differences. (Compare San Francisco to New York City, and see what I mean.) California also has some cultural differences with Hawaii and Cascadia (Oregon and Washington), and was also once its own country. If this is more than posturing, maybe it will be again.  

Add into this confusion the possibility of Puerto Rico trying to join the USA. Still, I don’t think anyone would be sad to see New Jersey go. If the US wishes to save money on making 51-star flags, perhaps they should merely expel that toxic waste dump and promote Puerto Rico in its place. 

Seriously, though, I believe secessionism and separatism as a cause around the world will only continue to gather steam. Relocalization of agriculture, manufacturing, and energy production is likely to occur (legally or not) as the global economy continues to crash. The technologies and techniques for such methods continue to improve, a side effect of the consumer and military industrial complexes’ own developments (ironically enough). The militaries of the world realize local manufacture and production of fuel and supplies simplifies their logistics chains (which any commander will realize as key to success). Technology in the military sector will eventually make it to the civilian market, legally or not. Social change is a self-organize system, so it is logical to guess relocalized decision making will become more politically relevant. 

The corrupted political regimes will use every trick to prop the old economy up, up to and including assuming even more despotic powers. Even if they do this, there’s a limit to how much you can centralize things before they crash. “Bailouts” and wishful thinking are no substitute for your own local social safety net to fall back on. Your brain literally evolved to prefer your local contacts over some distant folks you've never met personally, after all. This isn’t just about “doomsday preppers” (a form of false security and magical thinking onto itself all too often). Rationed supplies cannot last forever, and small families/individuals without support can fail pretty quickly. Ironically, even the more savvy “survivalists” realize this, and deride the Mad Max/Rambo-esque fantasies for what they are. David Brin’s “Postman” is a good depiction of how much you’d miss being a part of a functional civilization.

At the same time, though, it is important to realize the global system’s current incarnation has no decent future. There is more debt than the world’s GDP. Median household incomes are falling across the developed world. Even the BRICs, whose development propped up the system a bit longer, seem to be sputtering out. Solid nations may splinter into smaller chunks. The climate’s going mad, and the easy to get fossil fuels are increasingly depleted (despite magical thinking and PR). Even if some genius physicist comes up with a viable fusion reactor or the like, innovation-unfriendly patent laws and a lack of investment in new infrastructure projects would hinder deployment.

Relocalization is coming, regardless of what the zombie governments want. Some may wise up on the transition, and others may not. Still, a multipolar world of several small states is preferable to a neo-feudal corporate socialist world system. The cyberpunk dystopia will give way to a postcyberpunk one, if we can manage it.

That is why this secessionist wave will be interesting to watch. Even if they fail, they could easily remerge in a few years. Once something has become mainstream politics, there’s a good chance it will last until it passes (or something close to it does).  

Of course, it could all take us down with it. It’s not hard to imagine the governments of the world using war to distract people from domestic troubles, and if nuclear superpowers get involved, things can get real ugly rapidly. Likewise, there is a remote chance of a catastrophic collapse that makes Mad Max look utopian. However, I believe the current batch of separatists will continue to use legal and political methods for the foreseeable future. Sit back, buckle up, and enjoy the ride.