Supervillain State

If any single nation state today has completely dropped the pretense of a social contract, North Korea counts. The fact it's a got state-sponsored organized crime syndicate or two is just the tip of the iceberg.

Tipping Points

Corruption becomes routine as the facade of legality falls away. In particular, once the corruption reaches certain levels, it becomes routine. The political and legal systems become detached from the laws of nature and reality, even basic biology. As the gap between rich and poor widens, attempts at surveillance and control expand, even in prosperous countries. Despite the fact that a thriving middle class is a better deterrent to violence and crime, politicians still reach for powers even they barely comprehend. There comes a point when savvy members of the old order jump ship. That point may come as an unstable world economy crashes again.

Iktomi: The Zeitgeist of the Third Wave

As the Third Wave crashes into a sickly and dying Second Wave system, a mythological entity may be worth revisiting. Iktomi was a spider-spirit of Lakota folklore. He was a bringer of technology, and also a trickster. An accomplice of Coyote, he would often give people new technology. Sometimes, the technology itself is a trick, a method of distracting an unwary victim from seeing the true purpose of it. Iktomi was believed to have a hold over European and American settlers, who inadvertently spread Iktomi’s web (telegraph lines and railroads) across the land.   
 

Iktomi is also correlated with communications, like Mercury. Like the Norse Loki or African Anansi, he is a trickster. The trickster archetype was correlated with hackers in recent decades, and some parallels with Iktomi are fairly logical. Both manipulate lines of communication to play tricks. Both bring novelty and new technologies. 

Hacking and cyberwar have been on the news recently. However, much about cyberwarfare is fear-mongering. Military and technological secrets tend to remain secrets for a very short time, especially in the present. Cyberwarfare favors the defender, and each cyberattack is often a single use weapon. After a cyberattack, security holes that led to it are typically the first things that get closed. Types of cyberattackers range from cyber-criminals (who merely seize something and run), cyber-spies (looking for intel or doing counterintelligence), cyber-terrorists (seeking a target of opportunity), and cyber-warriors (seeking to actively disable another network/system). Cyberweapons, such as Stuxnet and Flame, can easily be reverse engineered by their former targets. The political chiding to “improve cyber-security” may very well be a mandate to spend more on overpriced, under-efficient “security” software. Once again, the “security theater” replaces the rather boring reality. Many of the folks hawking “cybersecurity” products are the modern analogs of Basil Zaharoff.  

But to return to Iktomi, let us examine a cyber-attack as a form of combined arms. Even non-state actors could combine multiple vectors of an attack or plan to accomplish their goals. This process does not necessarily have to involve violence, destruction, or even illegality. An activist group could release leaked documents at the same moment a video goes viral. Iktomi may parallel the cypherpunk culture. As more things become networked, it becomes harder to completely shut down the internet, even if there is a “kill switch” (or more mundane power failures).

The technologies that thrive as Second Wave nation-states and corporations recede are decentralized ones. Permaculture and aquaponics may remove (or at least reduce) the need for food. Makerspaces allow for relocalized manufacturing. Solar panels and DIY renewables (such as homemade biofuels on a number of farms) could replace faulty power grids. Encrypted cybercurrencies like Bitcoin could act as a metric for a number of local currencies. There would be less need to rely on dying, stodgy bureaucracies. Iktomi would have the last laugh.

Neurohacking: A Brain Caper

As any neuroscientist or psychologist knows, calling the human brain “flawed” would be an understatement. Brains can be distracted easily, reject information they disagree with, and convinced to make rather stupid decisions not in their self-interest. Just Google the term “cognitive bias” for some clear examples. The brain is an impulsive, ad hoc massively parallel system, if we wish to view it as a computer system. 

Like other computers, the brain can be hacked. That is, its vulnerabilities can be exploited for someone else’s motives or curiosity. Eating sweetened foods or watching TV are common “hacks” for the pleasure centers of the brain. However, as neurotechnology advances, they may also be hacked. It is already possible to hack invasive implants (such as pacemakers, cochlear implants, etc.), so hacking a brain implant (especially a wireless one) is not outside the realm of possibility. Personal information could be placed at risk. 

More interestingly, brain-hacking is possible even by non-invasive venues. Even EEG, an older technology, can beused for neural hacking. EEG headsets are becoming commercialized and cheaper (about 200-300 USD). One use for these is brain computer interface (BCI). Brain computer interface (BCI) is a technology which allows an individual’s brain signals to control a computer or prosthetic device. There are applications for medicine (e.g. assisting disabled persons) and for entertainment (e.g. computer and video games). 

Interestingly, a simple EEG-based BCI system was used to unknowingly steal information from participants in a study. The types of information included house locations, bank account and credit card numbers, PINs, and the like. The study had a ~10-40% success rate on its 28 participants. None of them knew they were being hacked. Imagine if hackers disguised such an information-stealing program as a computer game, or embedded such a system with a popular computer game. 

Imagine if the personal data harvested by such an endeavor was encrypted, cached, and stored online for later retrieval. For instance, imagine if any a small amount of cash from compromised bank accounts was converted into an encrypted, online currency (e.g. BitCoin) and then vanishes into the underground economy. Such a process could easily be automated and be implemented at a low cost.

There are possible defenses and countermeasures that could be used. For example, tagging suspicious transactions with online banking could be one. Another could be allowing open access to code to check for any hacks or tweaks of the sort. Some people may have “natural defenses” in the form of forgetfulness and absent-mindedness. Still, the low success rate (<50%) means that in order to be profitable, such a hack would need to target large numbers of people or specifically target wealthy people. Social engineering may also be combined to prevent people from realizing anything is amiss, as well. 

Given that all the technologies for such an endeavor already exist, implementing a prototype system could be a rewarding task. Likewise, imagine if government and private spy agencies began investigating this technology. What could possibly go wrong?

The Coming Era of Supervillainy

Multiple converging trends indicate that someday, evil overlords and criminal masterminds straight out of popular culture and into the news. There are multiple types of supervillains we can discuss here, often with significant overlap between the categories. Many are as old as society itself, while others wield abilities undreamt of by previous generations. As long as human society exists, there will be crime and malcontents of some sort. There will always be those who use power for their own ends, ignoring the cost to others. Such an environment is neither conduciveto representative government nor human benefit. 

The supervillainy of the era represents the return of a system that is as old as history. This socio-economic model is neither capitalism nor socialism, but instead something much older: feudalism. Parasitic elites at the top use warlords and peasants to support their lifestyles while peasants and serfs toil beneath them. Those outside of the system are outlaws, having no legal representation to the feudal order. 

The fundamental components are already in place, and the momentum is already leading there. I will discuss three categories of potential supervillain that could thrive in such a system: the Corrupt Elite, the Empowered Individual, and the Underworld Entrepreneur. There is significant overlap between these categories in some cases, but I believe these could be the main archetypes that tomorrow’s supervillains may gravitate towards. These are just my takes on how they may arise, what their strategies may be, and how they may deal with threats. 

--The Corrupt Elite: The robber baron, the corrupt politician, and others who abuse power and wealth for their own benefit are among both the most transparent and easiest to loathe. However, as long as even the elite have “skin in the game,” they realize working with others (the positive sum game) is better than just ignoring them. Power and wealth often go together, and history is full of politicians who help wealthy friends loot others’ wealth (via often taxes on lower classes, no-bid contracts, and bailouts for their associates). The term “kleptocrat” is most apt for these individuals, as their primary goal is to use the state apparatus to encourage rent-seeking. 

When there is less difference, financially and ideologically, between the top and bottom of society, there is a greater chance each member realizes they’re “all in it together.” This is why I believe the health of the middle class and related metrics like “median household income” are better indicators of social and economic health than just GDP. As the middle class collapses, stratification, crime, and instability also increase. The elite become increasingly isolated, building their own infrastructure and segregated enclaves while letting everything elsefall apart. Look at the American infrastructure. 

While barely half a century old, it’s already collapsing to below Victorian levels. Overreliance on cars and suburbs, as opposed to logical urban planning and mass transit (public or private), additionally made the USA extra-vulnerable to oil price shocks. There was actually a conspiracy behind this that makes the tinfoil hat crowd seem sane. Oil, tire, and car companies conspired to replace streetcars with buses. By the time the case had made it to court, the damage had already been done. The fact oil and gas companies have such financial and political power is hardly surprising. 

Many Corrupt Elites do not content themselves with merely minding their own business. Many will crackdown on the “peasants” for espousing views they disagree with, turning police forces into their personal illegal spying agencies, and enforcing their personal whims upon others with a “nanny state” approach. While police forces and crackdowns are their preferred tools for now, advances in drones, automation, and surveillance technology will mean the need for “manpower” for running their regime is greatly reduced. So maybe those police and official pensions are ripe for kleptocrat seizure, once drone and robot technology has become sufficiently advanced. Like Dr. Doom, they are “legitimate” overlords of states and territories with no shortage of robot henchmen.  

--The Empowered Individual: As stated before on the blog, new technologies can empower individuals for good or ill. However, unlike comic books, it is extremely rare for a “lone genius” to produce paradigm-shifting technologies wholly by themselves. However, the production costs and increasing ease of fabrication makes many disruptive technologies more available.

This means that while a single mad scientist is unlikely to destroy the world, the potential for disruption increases. Autonomous, decentralized networks are a far more likely incarnation for the deployment of disruptive technologies and techniques. From non-violent activist groups to armed insurgencies (and everything in between), the successful techniques used by one group are likely to be copied en masse by others. By the time a countermeasure has been found, others will likely have moved on to different tactics. Especially savvy groups might combine tactics for maximum effect, a sort of fourth generation warfare (4GW) analog of combined arms theory. 

Empowered Individuals may be motivated by a number of things, but Corrupt Elites are natural targets for them. Activists may seek the removal of a corrupt official, protest the favors given to a crooked businessperson, or seek redress for government misconduct. Not all EIs may have ideological or "moral" reasons for their activities. As people become desperate, there is always the risk of the depraved spree killer. As stated before, Dr. Brin has a great way to deal with them, denying them the infamy they seek. Like the character "V" in Alan Moore's "V for Vendetta," they cause ideologically disruption against centralized power and infrastructure for good or ill. Or like Batman's eternal nemesis, the Joker, engage in destruction for its own sake.

--The Underworld Entrepreneur: Crime of the regular sort has always been part of the economy.

As such, there have been individuals and organizations that out-competed their rivals to dominate their market. In the underworld, this means the most adept at violence and ruthless behavior can dominate their fellows. Whenever something is banned in the regular economy, black and "gray" markets may emerge to fill the demand. 

The effects of Prohibition and the "War on Drugs" have encouraged organized crime to thrive. Not only are drug-related shootings the dominant type of firearms crime, but prisons have been shoved full of non-violent offenders who have little to lose by going deeper into crime. Many street gangs use drugs to fund their own activities, and battle other gangs for control of turf they can use to sell drugs with. Typically, the police target the largest gang, often the "victor" of the gang war. After the police act, there is typically a power vacuum as other gangs or factions within the gang start the cycle over again. 

No matter which gang dominates the streets, the long term winners are the drug cartels that supplied the drugs in the first place. Some groups, like the Mexican drug cartels, have such wealth and power, they have built their own infrastructure. Not only do they possess significant munitions, logistics networks, tunnels, and other methods to smuggle drugs, some even built their own communicationsinfrastructure and armored vehicles. They maintain international smuggling networks to move their product, and are a force to be reckoned with in their home country (and beyond). 

Even outside of "regular" criminal activities (gun-running, drug smuggling, etc.), there is an entire market ecosystem outside of official channels. This is known as System D. The original term comes from a French word, "débrouillards" (meaning "clever"), but I believe an apt English translation is "Devious." Not all parts of System D involve organized crime of the regular sort. System D is a broad category for all "informal" economic activity, from kids selling lemonade to African marketplaces selling fresh food to even services like trash removal. There's even real estate provided by System D.

System D is the world's fastest growing economy outside the USA (and possibly inside it). As more things are banned, regulated, or restricted by increasingly desperate and cash-strapped states, the black and gray economies can only grow as more and more people turn to alternative economies. As 'legit' economies falter, the laws of supply and demand reach new equilibrium independent of existing policies and laws. Even "legit" companies can inadvertently be drawn into System D by proxies and "technically" legit deals.

As discrete method of payments like encrypted cybercurrencies (such as BitCoin) and unofficial exchange/logistics networks (such as the Islamic world's "hawala" practice) combine, a new type of underworld entrepreneur may emerge. The survival criteria for continuing to operate in System D are being sneaky enough to avoid law enforcement and/or having the wealth/political clout to evade accountability. This not only means it is possible an organization like SPECTRE from James Bond may emerge, but statistically probable. 

A real life Blofeld or Moriarty may lord over a distributed network of crime like a spider in a web. They may supply Empowered Individuals with illicit goods, be targets of them, or may compete with Corrupt Elites (or perhaps even make the transition into "legitimacy"). A UE may likewise benefit from automation, as it removes the need for human operatives in crime networks to a significant degree. (Such an idea is the basis of a new novel a friend and I are working on.)

So there you have some of the archetypes I believe may emerge in the future. Of course, if strange vigilantes arise to match real life supervillains, then things may get very interesting real fast. For the rest of us, however, the quality of life is likely to suffer greatly. There are many reasons why places with roving warbands are not pleasant to live in. At the same time, living on the whims of a neofeudal overlord are little better. That is why I believe in living in a resilient community less dependent on an increasingly unhinged world system.