Bitcoin Futures

Despite some recent bans dropping the price of Bitcoin, I believe it is still a market to watch. I think that a Bitcoin (and similar cryptocurrencies) are more useful as a money/value transfer system than simply as a currency. The weak points tend to be the exchanges and perhaps size of the blockchain, but I believe future currencies can learn from this. Even Bitcoin can be modified based on code from other implementations. I am interested in observing this new class of commodities over the long term, for it will be a wild ride.

Disruption in Action

In the wake of the tragic Boston bombings, a number of other incidents have occurred. Letters full of ricin were sent to political figures in both parties. In Silicon Valley, a fiber optic cable was cut while some individual or group caused an oil spill near a substation. In addition, the design of the bombs in Boston seems to be a rather common “pressure cooker” design. These incidents may be unrelated, may all be copycats, or may be something else, but the fact remains that for all the police state and surveillance powers assumed after 9/11, the military and police were not able to stop them. Nonetheless, I imagine many of the familiar shills for despotism to start crawling out of the woodwork like they did after 9/11.

In the meantime, some fear-mongering (especially Arab-baiting) continues in earnest. While the week in April has some significance to American domestic extremists, the drone program has increased anti-Americanism abroad (especially under the Obama administration). The incident may also be apolitical, such as a deranged spree killer seeking more attention by using explosives instead of firearms. A sporting event is certain to have lots of cameras rolling, so merely a “smaller” bomb may kill and wound but get far more media attention. (Many rather nasty weapons in history were designed to maim rather than kill, but that is a topic for another day.) The objective may be disruption itself, showing how ineffectual the government is to prevent such carnage. The over-reaction by the government may actually be what the goals were, causing billions in disruption for the price of some cheap bombs. However, I would rather not indulge in more speculation over this sociopath and his/her/their motives. Interestingly, though, the massive deaths in foreign bombings are all but invisible to the US media now.

Havens

As the Westphalian nation state fails and climate rises, a question that arises is “Where can be safe?” This, of course, can be a rather loaded question, given the instabilities that unfold as millions of refugees run for safety. Places that seem stable and peaceful for now may become less so as populations shift. Likewise, there is the risk of neutral places becoming drawn into wars and armed conflict by less stable neighbors. However, some places in the world have the geography, culture, and resilience to weather the disasters of a shifting planet. 

-New Zealand: New Zealand is the highest ranked Commonwealth country in the democracy index. It also has mountains that provide reliable hydroelectric power and water for drinking and agriculture. The low density makes it a good place for farming and outdoor sports and has a more relaxed, informal culture. Unlike Australia, their geography enables farming without excessive chemical use (although pollution is a rising problem, especially agricultural runoff). Refugees from Pacific islands may pose another issue as sea levels rise. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (including the supervolcano under Lake Taupo) could be another issue. 

-Northern Europe: By this, I roughly refer to the Scandinavian countries, Germany, and perhaps Switzerland. The German economy is shifting towards renewables and remains a powerhouse for technology and research. Norway also steered clear of the disaster that was the Eurozone, and wisely invests its oil money into public infrastructure and resources. Issues, however, are strict (read: practically nonexistent) immigration protocols, meaning it is good for people who are already there. As climate change occurs, I imagine those immigration controls will get stricter.

-Cascadia: Cascadia is Washington and Oregon in the US with British Columbia in Canada. This region has water from the nearby mountains, as well as abundant hydropower. Drawbacks include a few nuclear reactors there (as well as being downwind of Fukushima). This area is beautiful and likewise has a tech-driven economy. Unlike California, they have water resources less dependent than the increasingly depleted aquifers of the American Southwest. Likewise, Seattle invested in an edible garden, while other cities have not. The public transit systems in the urban areas tend to be better than many more suburban sprawl belts (such as LA).  

-New England: New England is another decent region in North America, given its white-collar economy and natural resources. In particular, Vermont appeals the most to myself, given its drive towards self sufficiency and lack of more obnoxious laws. Drawbacks include a number of nuclear reactors active in the region, especially given the large population along the US East Coast and near the Great Lakes. However, ocean acidification may mean traditional fishing becomes increasingly less viable. 

However, even Canada is sliding into an oligarchic petro-state, complete with repression and censorship of research. Maybe in a few decades time, Russia may be a prosperous and free society. No place is truly safe, but those places are where I would bet on being relatively stable compared to other parts of the world. Better to find a resilient community today.