Havens

As the Westphalian nation state fails and climate rises, a question that arises is “Where can be safe?” This, of course, can be a rather loaded question, given the instabilities that unfold as millions of refugees run for safety. Places that seem stable and peaceful for now may become less so as populations shift. Likewise, there is the risk of neutral places becoming drawn into wars and armed conflict by less stable neighbors. However, some places in the world have the geography, culture, and resilience to weather the disasters of a shifting planet. 

-New Zealand: New Zealand is the highest ranked Commonwealth country in the democracy index. It also has mountains that provide reliable hydroelectric power and water for drinking and agriculture. The low density makes it a good place for farming and outdoor sports and has a more relaxed, informal culture. Unlike Australia, their geography enables farming without excessive chemical use (although pollution is a rising problem, especially agricultural runoff). Refugees from Pacific islands may pose another issue as sea levels rise. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (including the supervolcano under Lake Taupo) could be another issue. 

-Northern Europe: By this, I roughly refer to the Scandinavian countries, Germany, and perhaps Switzerland. The German economy is shifting towards renewables and remains a powerhouse for technology and research. Norway also steered clear of the disaster that was the Eurozone, and wisely invests its oil money into public infrastructure and resources. Issues, however, are strict (read: practically nonexistent) immigration protocols, meaning it is good for people who are already there. As climate change occurs, I imagine those immigration controls will get stricter.

-Cascadia: Cascadia is Washington and Oregon in the US with British Columbia in Canada. This region has water from the nearby mountains, as well as abundant hydropower. Drawbacks include a few nuclear reactors there (as well as being downwind of Fukushima). This area is beautiful and likewise has a tech-driven economy. Unlike California, they have water resources less dependent than the increasingly depleted aquifers of the American Southwest. Likewise, Seattle invested in an edible garden, while other cities have not. The public transit systems in the urban areas tend to be better than many more suburban sprawl belts (such as LA).  

-New England: New England is another decent region in North America, given its white-collar economy and natural resources. In particular, Vermont appeals the most to myself, given its drive towards self sufficiency and lack of more obnoxious laws. Drawbacks include a number of nuclear reactors active in the region, especially given the large population along the US East Coast and near the Great Lakes. However, ocean acidification may mean traditional fishing becomes increasingly less viable. 

However, even Canada is sliding into an oligarchic petro-state, complete with repression and censorship of research. Maybe in a few decades time, Russia may be a prosperous and free society. No place is truly safe, but those places are where I would bet on being relatively stable compared to other parts of the world. Better to find a resilient community today.

Boiling Frogs

A popular analogy for the public in many formerly-democratic states is a frog in a pot of boiling water. If the pot is heated too fast, the frog jumps out. But if the temperature is gradually raised, the frog will remain unaware as it is cooked alive. A wise evil overlord, therefore, does not start off with obvious displays of power. They start off maintaining the status quo, and gradually introducing more insidious bills, laws, and extra-legal practices. Ideally, their predecessor(s) may have started these programs, so continuing them is expected of them. 

This is nothing historically novel. One hallmark of such practices, however, is they often occur in states rapidly centralizing power. Such centralization is often a desperate, last-ditch maneuver. The Roman Emperors gradually assumed more and more power, until the Empire collapsed on its own weight. It appears that the US government is hell-bent on repeating this, independently of the legal justifications (or lack therefore of) for each program. The drone assassination program is a perfect example of one, as detailed elsewhere. 

Take, for instance, the contempt of public wishes by politicians. Last year, CISPA was a “cybersecurity” bill that gutted online privacy (amongst other things). An internet outcry caused it to be dropped. Recently, the President has issued an executive order that essentially does the same thing. The icing on the cake is that CISPA has been regurgitated, copied word-for-word from its original incarnation. Worse than that, this comes as the government clamps down on the few rights that are left. 

The metaphor of the boiling frogs is even more appropriate when you consider climate change. The methane clathrates rising from the ocean floor like a Great Old One threaten to deep fry the world and turn the oceans to acidic stew. Whether the world economy, environmental factors, or political structures will collapse first is uncertain. Far more important is to find a way out of the pot.