To further add
to the confusion is the effects of advancing technology. In military science,
technology is not only a force multiplier for armed forces, but also enables
new venues of attack previous generations would consider impossible. Imagine
explaining cyberattacks to a World War II tank commander. Asymmetric warfare
favors the small groups and even individuals, and their powers only increase
over time. Today’s cutting edge research is tomorrow’s niche hobby.
With resource
depletion, climate change, and economic collapse, the ruling elites are trying
their hardest to hold onto power of vestigial structures. However, their desire
and desperation to hold onto power are often the things that destroy the
institutions they depend on. Corruption means that more disaffected individuals
will arise, regardless of how many riots or uprisings are put down. Lots of
broad bans on technologies and fields of research mean amateurs are less likely
to hold things, but only a few professionals (who may or may not game the
system for their own benefits). Surveillance and arrest of dissidents (including
those practicing “legal” methods of dissent) means that change within
institutions becomes much more unlikely. Expansive domains shrink as the costs
of maintaining them exceed wealth extracted.
On the positive
side, though, technologies exist for eliminating poverty and alleviating
resource depletion (albeit treating symptoms rather than causes). From cheap
desalinization to renewable energy to 3D printing to impressive medicaltechnology, we will need everything we can. Living under a dystopian police
state out of a cyberpunk novel is bad enough, but as technologies get cheaper
and more widespread, we may at least get a postcyberpunk future instead.
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